Tony Blair has been assailed on numerous fronts in 2006. The Tessa Jowell affair, the allegations over "cash for coronets", perceptions of disarray in the health service, the deterioration in his relations with Gordon Brown - all this has intensified questions over how long the prime minister can stay at Number 10.

Next week's local elections in England are therefore critical for Mr Blair, revealing how much he has become a liability for Lab-our. A truly bad performance next Thursday would intensify demands from Labour rebels that he must go now. A reasonable outcome would probably give him the momentum to go into 2007.