Fifteen percentage points. That is the staggering growth differential between China and Ireland this year. Whereas China may grow by more than 6.3 per cent in 2009, the Celtic tiger will shrink by 8.3 per cent, according to the latest dire forecast. This is a loss of output of historic proportions. The Economic and Social Research Institute reckons Irish gross domestic product will contract 11.6 per cent between 2008 and 2010, the greatest slump of any Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development country since the 1930s, surpassing the 11 per cent fall in output by Finland in 1990-1993.

As a small open economy, Ireland needs global demand to pick up fast: exports are two-thirds greater than consumption. Thankfully, it makes few big shiny metal things, specialising instead in pharmaceuticals and information technology exports, which have held up better. Ireland’s exports will fall by less than 5 per cent this year, a fraction of the 13.2 per cent collapse the OECD expects for world trade as a whole. With its banks still walking wounded, Ireland is unlikely to race out of intensive care. The ESRI expects the economy to contract by a further 1.1 per cent in 2010, albeit less than the 2.9 per cent decline for which Dublin is bracing itself.