The most revealing statement made by Condoleezza Rice, US secretary of state, on her visit to London this week was about the resounding victory of Hamas, the militant Islamist movement, in the Palestinian elections. ?Certainly I have asked why nobody saw it coming,? she told journalists on her aeroplane. ?I hope we will take a hard look. It does say something about perhaps not having had a good enough pulse on the Palestinian population.?

That failure of intelligence may not prove to be quite as devastating or costly as the failure in Iraq, although many Israelis fear otherwise. But it is deeply embarrassing to advocates in the White House of a policy of democracy-first, conflict-resolution later. For too long, they have allowed their information to be driven by both ideology and Israeli intelligence sources.