Few things point to the absurdity of economic forecasting more than “experts” disagreeing over whether the US faces inflation or deflation. Whichever your side, it seems that the latter view is winning of late. In the past fortnight, 10-year Treasury yields have fallen 30 basis points. So-called break-even inflation rates – the difference between, say, nominal yields on five-year government bonds and real inflation-linked yields of the same maturity, which indicates the direction investors expect prices to head – have been drifting south since mid-September.

One argument used by the inflationistas, fearing a world full of 1920s Weimar Germanys, is that monetary policy is absurdly loose. Policy rates are close to zero almost everywhere and may stay there for some time. The US Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programme, for example, keeps yields artificially low in a range of asset classes from government debt to mortgage-backed securities. And interest rate levels are not just important to those bickering about future prices. Many are also hoping low borrowing costs will spur economic growth.