Financial Times FT.com

Darkening skies

Published: October 10 2008 12:55 | Last updated: October 10 2008 22:25

More airlines have gone bust this year than in the 12 months after September 11 2001. International passenger growth keeps slowing, according to Iata, the airlines’ association, although it has not turned negative, as it did after 9/11 – at least not yet. The falling oil price provides the only consolation for an industry bracing itself for hard months ahead.

The spillover from the financial crisis is altering the skyscape. Just look at British Airways: when its all-share merger with Spain’s Iberia was announced at the end of July, the expectation was that the Spanish would get about 33 per cent of the new entity. That was a reflection of both relative market capitalisations, traffic and revenues. But the crisis is shifting the balance of power. The premium passenger traffic that BA has been banking on fell 8.6 per cent in September and the forecast for the next few months is gloomy. Add to this BA’s massive pension deficit, which has been widening by the day and hurts its valuation.

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