We have reached the season when brokerage houses release their forecasts for next year. A gaping disjunction is emerging.

Expectations for the economy are not positive – although the consensus is for a slowdown, rather than a recession. According to Citigroup – others have similar numbers – economists expect 3.4 per cent growth for the world in 2008, down from 3.7 per cent this year. All the major markets will slow down, with the exception of the US, which will rise from 2.2 to 2.3 per cent.