Whether Thursday’s data show China grew by 10.1 per cent or 10.4 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter is immaterial. The economy is slowing and the only question is the extent to which official numbers acknowledge this. More important is the direction of monetary policy and what it means for bets on the renminbi.

Like its neighbours, China is walking a tightrope between slowing growth and surging inflation. Lobbyists in both camps are waging battle: while the central bank governor talks of “stronger” anti-inflation policies, exporters grumble over factory closures. Those clamouring for growth have had the upper hand. There have been no interest rate rises this year and currency appreciation ceased from the beginning of April to mid-May. But policymakers have also been tackling inflation. Consumer prices rose 7.7 per cent in the year to May, down a percentage point from February’s peak. More importantly in the Chinese context, money supply growth is also slowing, marginally.