How to reconcile the following three statements? First, the US economy is in its worst shape since the recession of the late 1970s. Second, the market is almost certain that Democrats will take control of both Congress and the presidency for the first time since 1994. But, third, the dollar is rising.

None of these statements is deniable. Yesterday's ISM survey of manufacturing purchasing managers dropped far below bearish forecasts to 38.9 from 43.5. Anything below 50 signals a contraction. This is worse than anything since 1982.