The good news from China recently is that attempts to slow its investment-led boom by selectively curbing credit seem finally to be bearing fruit: in the year to April, investment grew at its lowest rate for three years. The bad news is that this spells problems for everyone else.

If the trend continues, it should in time check overheating of the economy. However, it will also boost China's trade surplus, aggravating global financial imbalances and frictions with the US and other trade partners. The surplus is expected to treble this year to $100bn (?79.6bn), about 6 per cent of forecast gross domestic product.