LEX 
Anniversaries are a good moment for reflection. With next Friday marking 20 years since the US stock market suffered its legendary “Black Monday” collapse, it is appropriate to consider whether the recent equity rally is as solid as it appears. It is particularly timely because, for the first time in more than 20 abundant quarters, US earnings growth looks likely to stall.
Three months ago, analysts expected S&P 500 earnings to rise by 6.2 per cent in the third quarter. A few days into the earnings season and that has been whittled down to zero, according to Thomson Financial. Financial companies have been hit by the credit turmoil and billions of dollars of write-downs. That has reduced sector estimates from 9 per cent growth in July to a decline of 8 per cent. Consumer discretionary stocks have also been slashed from 3 per cent growth in July to a fall of 7 per cent. Overall, earnings have been mixed for the companies that have already reported.
