In the short time since Ségolène Royal’s triumphant victory in the Socialist party “primaries”, the mood in France has changed spectacularly. Previously, left and right both feared the other side would win next spring’s election; now the left is elated and the right apprehensive. The favourite topic is no longer who is going to win, but what Ms Royal’s first moves as president should be.

Such an apparent consensus is not necessarily good news for the Socialist candidate. The precedents sound like a warning. The person thought likely to win a few months before elections has rarely if ever been elected. Valéry Giscard d’Estaing in 1981, Edouard Balladur in 2005 and Lionel Jospin in 2002 were favourites too early and were all defeated.