The conflict over Ukraine may not herald a second cold war, but it could signal the start of a prolonged cold peace between Russia and the west. Although US and European officials have studiously avoided portraying the Ukrainian upheaval as a west-east conflict, this is exactly how it has evolved at two critical levels: political and strategic.

If "the west" means transparent democracy, civil society, open media and the rule of law, and "the east" is synonymous with authoritarianism, statism and centralisation, then these two distinct systems are battling over Ukraine. The US government, the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe and the European Union have promoted democratic institutions in Ukraine, while Russian authorities endeavoured to uphold a corrupt proxy government in Kiev - one that has now been decisively rejected by voters. This is not a "clash of civilisations" but a collision between distinct socio-political structures.