Nigeria, the potential powerhouse of Africa, is in trouble. Brought to office in 2007 elections marred by accusations of fraud, President Umaru Yar’Adua had a lot to prove if he was to win popular legitimacy and overcome powerful cliques holding the nation back. His government is failing, and the consequences are grave.

The glue that has kept Nigeria together against long odds by binding the interests of its fractious elites, is coming unstuck. Onshore oil production has fallen to levels not seen since the 1960s amidst a crisis of confidence in government’s ability to regain control. Militants campaigning for a greater share of the wealth in the Niger delta have brought the oil industry to a virtual halt. The state is losing billions of dollars that it needs to invest in a decrepit infrastructure and failing schools.