Former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan introduced the idea of a bond “conundrum” four years ago when he noted that short-term interest rates were rising while, unusually, long bond yields were falling. Today, the opposite is true. Short-term rates are low – and in some countries still falling – yet long-term bond yields are rising. Some say this reflects fears of Zimbabwe-style inflation. The evidence suggests something else.

One way to gauge expected inflation is look at break-even rates. These measure the difference between the yield on Treasuries and inflation-indexed US government bonds. These suggest inflation in 10 years time of 1.9 per cent – hardly scary, especially as break-evens have averaged 2 per cent since 1999. Another method is to look at inflation swaps. These suggest prices rising 2.6 per cent in 2019 – slightly higher, but, again, hardly terrifying.