The global economic and financial crises reached south-east Europe in the fourth quarter of 2008. All countries in the region registered a sharp output decline, with Romania, Serbia and Bulgaria particularly affected.

According to revised forecasts by the European Bank for Reconsruction and Development, Bulgaria’s economy will shrink by 3 per cent in 2009. This is less severe than neighbouring Romania (minus 4 per cent) and level with Serbia (minus 3 per cent), but still marks a serious decline from previous years of strong growth in gross domestic product.