There is always a risk of rain. When the sun is shining, though, and there are few clouds in the sky, it is neurotic to be carrying an umbrella all the time. The latest economic outlook from the International Monetary Fund suggests that the world economy is doing rather well and, with sensible policy decisions, it should continue to do so.

Global economic growth, though a little slower than last year, is strong just about everywhere. The IMF has raised its 2007 growth forecasts all over the place: in Europe - from east to west - Japan, India, Brazil, Africa and the Middle East. Chinese growth is still forecast to be 10 per cent. The only major cuts to the IMF's forecasts are for the US and Canada, and even there growth is expected to be close to its long-run trend in 2007, before accelerating in 2008.