It is hard to say which is the greater challenge: maintaining growth in the Japanese economy or maintaining popularity as a Japanese prime minister. New opinion polls and economic forecasts suggest that Yasuo Fukuda, premier for only three months, will struggle to do either. His only hope is to take a bolder, more reformist path.

Mr Fukuda’s poll ratings reflect an ongoing scandal over the loss of public pension records. Unlike Junichiro Koizumi, his charismatic predecessor-but-one, Mr Fukuda has been unable to detach himself from the day-to-day blunders and missteps of his Liberal Democratic party. Downgrades to growth forecasts do not help, even though 1.3 per cent this year and 2 per cent in 2008 is not especially bad. With the working age population in decline, Japan’s trend growth rate may not be much above 1.5 per cent.