Lacking a viable military option in dealing with a nuclear North Korea or Iran, the Bush administration is adopting a cold war-style strategy of containment and deterrence that does not completely close the door on negotiated settlements.

While analysts and diplomats in Washington do not rule out the possibility of US military strikes against Iran – some even wager a better than 50 per cent chance by next summer – there is a sense that the Bush doctrine of pre-emptive or preventive war is buried in the wreckage of Iraq.