Bad news never travels alone. Following the stalling of talks on the future of Kosovo, a political crisis has now gripped Bosnia. The country’s central government has not met for more than five weeks and one of its main constituent parties threatens to leave it altogether. This would incapacitate the government and could touch off Bosnia’s disintegration. The consequences would be dire, not only for the Balkans but also for Europe. Since the end of the 1992-1995 war, the European Union has provided billions of euros of aid, thousands of peacekeepers and the “office of the high representative” to restore unity to Bosnia and to set it on the path to EU membership. If the country fragments now, nobody will take EU foreign policy seriously.

The trouble began in October when Milorad Dodik, president of the Serb Republic, and Haris Silajdzic, the Bosniak member of Bosnia’s collective presidency, blocked attempts to unify the country’s police forces. To prevent such obstructionism in the future, high representative Miroslav Lajcak decided to allow the government to take decisions even when some ministers are absent. Mr Dodik saw this as jeopardising his ability to hinder Bosnia’s central authorities and threatened to go into opposition if Mr Lajcak’s measures came into effect on December 1, as scheduled. No Bosnian Serb leader is likely to want to replace Mr Dodik. Mr Lajcak may therefore have to choose between restoring direct international rule over Bosnia and seeing the country disintegrate. To make things worse, a declaration of independence by Kosovo – possibly coming in December – will further inflame secessionist sentiment among Bosnian Serbs.