Something predictable has happened to Barack Obama's breathtaking ascent. His star is still in the sky but the shine is fading. Almost six months after launching his presidential bid, Mr Obama's poll numbers remain stubbornly behind those of Hillary Clinton.

At the national level, Mrs Clinton's lead over Mr Obama averages 35 per cent to Mr Obama's 22 per cent. In the small states where the crucial early primary elections will be staged next January to determine the Democratic 2008 nominee, Mrs Clinton leads by 14 points in New Hampshire, 17 points in Nevada and by two points in South Carolina.