Capitulation, interrupted. The dollar was in a free-fall to historic lows yesterday, until the ISM manufacturing supply managers' survey arrested its fall. But the fear about the US economy that was implicit in the dollar, and in historic highs for commodities from gold to oil through soybeans, will not be banished that easily.

To understand how bad things were, note that the ISM figure was dreadful by any usual standard. It fell to 48.3, its lowest since 2003, and any number below 50 indicates a contraction in activity.