Hidden amid grotty fourth-quarter figures from BP on Tuesday was the disclosure that it now believed oil prices would stay stronger for longer. BP will test projects’ net present value on the basis of a Brent crude price of $60 per barrel for at least five years, up from $40. For chief executive Tony Hayward this marks a shift from his predecessor, Lord Browne, who expressed greater confidence that the oil price would revert rapidly to its mean.

That $60 figure is gaining currency across the industry. Suncor Energy used it in approving a huge C$21bn investment to upgrade its Canadian oil sands operation. Anything lower would have threatened a modest 15 per cent hurdle for return on capital – only fractionally above the average return on exploration for conventional oils in the past three years, according to Wood Mackenzie.