Ask around in Washington about the foreign policy issues which will shape George W. Bush's second term and the answers are the Middle East, the Middle East and the Middle East. Many put a fourth pin into a map of North Korea. Everyone starts with Iraq, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Iran. Yet owning up to the inevitable is one thing. The question left hanging is whether the administration has policies to match the challenges.

In Iraq, the US is largely a prisoner of past mistakes. The war's harshest critics struggle to come up with the strategic masterstroke which might set Mr Bush free. Instead, Washington's hopes must rest on containing the insurgency, pressing ahead with elections, building up the local security forces and, crucially, pulling out as soon as Iraq can govern itself. This is a country where the only remaining choices are about lesser evils.