Wielding the car industry's equivalent of a crystal ball, Fiat chief Sergio Marchionne foresees marriage for many carmakers. He has predicted only six global players will be left in two years.

Consolidation is needed. European and US car markets are plagued by overcapacity. Pre-crunch sales figures, turbo-charged by cheap credit, may not return even post-recession. Spiralling research and development costs, especially to develop "green" technology, require a huge sales base to defray costs. Mr Marchionne may have set the bar high by suggesting carmakers need to sell 5.5m-6m cars a year to make money, but below 4m looks unsustainable. And, long-term, Mr Marchionne is surely right. Developed world carmakers have long been heading towards domination by maybe half a dozen groups. Five - Toyota, Volkswagen, Renault-Nissan, GM and Ford - beat the 5m threshold; Korea's Hyundai Kia, with 4m units last year, is fast pulling level.