All roads lead to China and India. Whether one is talking to policymakers gathered in Davos or to business leaders scattered around the globe, the conversation inevitably turns to the spectacular growth of China and India - the elephants in the room, or at least the boardroom. Perhaps not surprisingly, most observers divide into two camps: sceptics who expect the two nations to stumble after so many years of rapid growth; and doomsayers who think China and India will suffocate the developed west.

I disagree with both schools of thought. First, I will address the sceptics. I think that, if anything, the China-India story is under-blown. The numbers show the huge potential for spending on middle-class goods and infrastructure. China, a nation of 1.3bn people, bought just 5m cars in 2004, according to The Economist. France, a nation less than one-twentieth the size in population, purchased half that.