Tony Blair, Britain’s prime minister, and a vast chorus of world leaders have warned that the possible failure of the Doha trade talks would be a catastrophe for the world and a lost opportunity to alleviate poverty in developing countries. However, as the parameters of a possible deal are hammered out in back-room meetings, we should remember that the content of the agreement matters more than the agreement itself. As it stands, the Doha round is rushing headlong – if any trade agreement can be described as “rushing” – towards a conclusion that would do very little for the poorest countries.

The current log-jam centres on the European Union’s offer to reduce its agricultural tariffs on condition that developing countries agree to open their manufacturing and services sectors. This offer is the brainchild of Peter Mandelson, EU trade commissioner and veteran political tactician. He recognises that either the developing countries will accept the pact, in which case he can claim to have delivered a win for Europe’s exporters, or they will reject it, in which case he can saddle them with the blame for the failure of the round.