As far as weak statements go, “the world economy appears to be past the worst” is pretty feeble. But at an extremely uncertain time, it sums up the consensus on the outlook for the global economy.

Financial markets have improved considerably since their trough in March. The big equity markets around the world have rallied by 25-35 per cent over the past quarter. Companies have been able to issue new equity and bonds. In the US, corporate bond issuance this year has exceeded the first half of 2007. In Europe, sub-investment-grade corporate bonds have been issued for the first time since 2007.