There will be no winner of the Irish referendum – not at the level that matters most. But there will be a loser: the European Union. What matters most for the future of the EU is that it create popular support for integration. It is failing to do so. The most striking thing about opinion across Europe today is the decline of idealism about integration and the resurgence of a kind of nationalism.

Calling a second Irish referendum to achieve the “correct” decision has strengthened perceptions of the EU as managerial, even undemocratic. If the Irish vote Yes, there will be no surge of popular enthusiasm across Europe. However, if the referendum is defeated, there may be widespread satisfaction at the failure of an attempt to coerce opinion.