A few months ago, investment bankers were looking forward to another round of record bonuses. The credit market pile-up has put paid to that. The worry now is exactly how far bonus pools will shrink from last year.

That will delight the commentators lining up to tell Ben Bernanke, Federal reserve chairman, that he should ensure Wall Street feels real pain from the unwinding of its recent excesses. But for the bankers involved, it is a nerve-racking end to the year. First, banks have started to slash jobs, particularly in the area of structured finance. Then there is the fear that another crisis will rock the market and drive this year’s magic bonus number even lower. Wall Street bonuses for 2002, after the bursting of the tech bubble, fell 33 per cent, for example. On top of all that, they also need to rethink whether last year’s bonus really was as high as they remember it to be.