The ADP (Automatic Data Processing) employment report has raised the stakes for the US non-farm payroll numbers that will be announced on Friday. On Wednesday, the ADP reported a gain of 386,000 private sector jobs in June, the largest increase since it started estimating numbers in 2001.

According to Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics, the average difference between the payroll numbers and the private sector component of the non-farm payrolls has been just 60,000 per month. That makes the consensus estimate for a non-farm payroll increase, at 155,000 before the ADP data, look pretty conservative. Shepherdson thinks the ADP number is too high, but is still moving his payrolls forecast up to 200,000.