Many strategists express amazement that the US stock market is rising steadily as the US economy is weakening. But what if the conventional wisdom about a US economic slowdown is wrong? If better real-time data were available, investors would realise that the US economy is booming rather than slumping.

Those who argue that the US economy is losing steam often cite initial releases from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Yet these initial releases are based on surveys and the extrapolation of historic data rather than real-time information.