Thirty years ago, as a keen but naive young economist, I predicted that by 2000 Iran would be an industrial superpower. The trend, extrapolated from three years of oil-fuelled growth during the 1970s, seemed inexorable. As things turned out, only one number in the forecast was right: the figure for Iran’s population growth.

The lesson is that real analysis has to distinguish those factors that will change in response to market forces and policy from the long-term, largely immutable, physical realities. That lesson needs to be applied to the numerous recent projections of doom in the energy market. A study published by the International Energy Agency, for instance, predicting a 50 per cent increase in energy demand to 2030 and continuing reliance on fossil fuels, has generated numerous despairing commentaries. Most, though, have missed the point. This is not a forecast – it is simply a projection based on recent trends and existing policies. The authors themselves say very clearly that the results are unsustainable.