It has always been a matter of when, not if. August data from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors showed that more estate agents reported a decline in UK house prices than reported a rise, the first negative balance in 22 months. New buyer inquiries declined at the fastest pace in three years. The survey, based on interviews with estate agents, is at odds with more upbeat data compiled by mortgage lenders, and August is a slow month at the best of times. Even so, Rics is watched closely, having flagged accurately the end of the 1980s property boom.

With the US housing market in decline, there are few reasons why the same should not happen in the UK. Price rises have been steeper, interest rates have jumped five times in the past year – whereas in the US mortgages tend to be fixed – and consumers are just as indebted.