No one, not even the most gloomy economic forecaster, predicted the global economy’s sudden collapse a year ago. Those that said the crisis would get nasty can feel vindicated, but even they did not foresee the global crisis of confidence that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
Arguably, they could not, says Bart van Ark, chief economist of the Conference Board, the global business organisation. “What you cannot forecast is a shock,” he says.
