Long-dated oil futures have recently climbed above the spot price. Contango (the jargon for this situation) in the oil market may be a sign that bears are covering their short positions after the dramatic price spike or that producers are unwinding their hedges.

However, commodity investors are also playing a part. Some are doubtless motivated by a belief that the world is running out of oil. Exponents of “peak oil” might benefit from examining the history of another source of energy that went into decline a century and a half ago. The rise and fall of the American whale oil industry provides certain pointers as to where the modern oil industry could be heading.