Politics are usually kind to the markets at this point in the electoral cycle. Since the war, the second half of the terms of US presidents has been far better than the first for stocks.

Large-cap stocks have made average annual gains of 18.6 per cent in the second half of presidential terms, compared with 5.9 per cent in the first two years, according to CFA Institute research. Presidents tend to get unpopular measures out of the way early and reap rewards later.