The outcome of the French referendum on the European Union's constitutional treaty is open. More than 20 opinion polls have put the No-voters ahead. Many people are still undecided.

Domestic politics are playing an important role. Alexis de Tocqueville's Souvenirs described a similar crisis in January 1848, just before King Louis-Philippe was overthrown because his government was weak, mistrusted and unable to tackle social issues. Today, many French people want to get rid of Jacques Chirac, the president. Eighty-two per cent of them elected him as the only alternative to the right-wing candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen in the run-off for the presidency. They do not want to vote for him again. Unfortunately, the French do not take the consequences of the vote on Europe seriously enough. Very few No-voters are against the EU. They do not want to leave the Union; rather they aspire, in a revolutionary spirit, to change it. After a No vote, everything will be better. Even the supporters of national sovereignty do not dare to reject Europe.