For the world economy, 2008 is a year of reckoning. Will the US slip into recession? Will other advanced economies prove vulnerable either to US woes or to their own financial market excesses? And will emerging economies shrug off these difficulties? The ability of the global economy to continue its current run – the fastest four years of economic growth since the early 1970s – depends on the answers, which will be much clearer by the end of the year.

For now, though, the outlook is hotly disputed.