Financial markets have a new bogeyman. Economic nationalism, it is argued, will tip the world into a Great Depression, just as America’s Smoot-Hawley Act did 79 years ago. This is a horrifying but, frankly, also a distant prospect. The disaggregation of global supply chains, the source of the huge efficiencies that companies pass on to consumers, will not be easily undone. The strained bonhomie at the World Economic Forum’s annual get-together was largely a symptom of the high stress levels among (mostly) elected leaders at a time when half the world’s top 10 economies are in recession and the other half are teetering on the edge.
For now, much of the protectionism is merely rhetorical and is likely to remain so. The controversial Buy American clause in the draft US fiscal stimulus package mandating use of locally produced iron and steel, for example, will be challenged by the EU and is anyway emasculated by a “public interest” opt-out. Actual measures have so far been minor. Take Russia’s 20 per cent increase in duty on imported cars. This has caused the odd street scuffle but is hardly likely to damage GM, Renault or Daimler, which all produce there.



