It takes two to tango. But there can be only one leader in the dance. In the dance of global macroeconomics, the US is not leader, but led. In aggregate, the countries of the world are offering the US a surplus of output over spending (or exports over imports) of $600bn a year. In making its response, only one consideration matters to the US: jobs. These two facts - the rest of the world's surplus output and the US goal of full employment - explain the global macro-economic picture.

I argued last week that the governments of Asian emerging market economies have been determined to run strong current account positions at least since the financial crises of 1997 and 1998. Given their countries' extraordinarily high rates of private savings, it is quite easy for them to do so. Japan and Germany, the world's second and third largest economies, are also generating very large surpluses: this year, according to the latest Consensus Forecasts, they will run an aggregate current account (or savings) surplus of $256bn. Other, smaller players are also joining in.