Anyone in doubt about the pivotal position played by China and India at this month's global climate change talks in Bali should glance through the latest forecasts from the International Energy Agency.

Assuming government policies remain unchanged, Chinese and Indian economic development would be the key drivers in sending annual global energy-related emissions of carbon dioxide – the main greenhouse gas – from 27bn tonnes in 2005 to 42bn by 2030, the IEA said last month.