Brazil has a well-deserved reputation as one of the most violent nations in the world. Between 1993 and 2003, the average number of people killed each year from gunshot wounds was 32,555, according to the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (Unesco). That surpassed the annual number of deaths in conflicts in Chechnya, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, Algeria and even the first Gulf war.

It is an expensive business. The violence cost the country R$92bn ($57bn) in 2004, or about 5 per cent of gross domestic product, according to a study released last year by the government’s Research Institute for Applied Economics (IPEA). But while these numbers are remarkable, recent developments suggest that all is not lost. Unexpectedly, the homicide rate is declining.