We are on the horns of a commodity dilemma. If we believe the judgment of the credit and stock markets, then the US financial services industry, the engine of the world's markets, is in a critical state. Meanwhile, the bond and currency markets show that confidence in the US economy has collapsed.

But this bleak assessment co-exists with a historic rally in the commodities markets. Oil, gold and corn set all-time records this week. Industrial metals also logged impressive rises. The rise has been inverse to the panic in other markets.