When I asked a Chinese academic last December what the main themes of 2009 would be, he named two big problems – the economy and Copenhagen.

The economy was pretty obvious. At the time we spoke, there were dark warnings about millions of disgruntled workers roaming the countryside. On Copenhagen, his worry was that as the world’s largest emitter of carbon, China would become the lightning rod for global anxiety about climate change. If the December summit in Denmark collapsed without agreement, he pointed out, the inevitable demonisation of China could begin to threaten its development.