The rules of the Punch and Judy games in Westminster encourage me to use the pre-Budget report to denounce the government and all its works. I am not going to do so. Any adult debate should start with an acknowledgement of the UK’s relative economic success: growth and employment performance is above the Group of Seven average and volatility has been reduced. The monetary and fiscal framework has served its purpose well. Complacency would be foolish, though, and now is the time to look at adaptations required for what may well be a rougher decade ahead.
The independent monetary policy committee has anchored inflation expectations and built credibility, as intended. Serious overhaul is not required. One anomaly, however, is that excessive liquidity and inflation are not addressed if channelled into asset markets, notably housing. The Bank of England is in the odd position of dealing with the expected expenditure effects of a rampant housing boom – and potential collapse – but not the boom itself. Housing largely explains the worrying disparity between current retail price index and consumer price index inflation (3.7 per cent and 2.4 per cent). There is no reason why the UK cannot add a cost-of-housing element to the CPI now while the European version is negotiated.

Pre-Budget report 2006 - Comment

