Wall Street bankers are relaxed and happy this weekend as Brazil’s presidential election goes into its second round. As J. P. Morgan noted in a report to clients on Friday, “Financial markets have little concern about the maintenance of macroeconomic policy pillars in a second Lula administration, but the expectations regarding the reform agenda are very low, which means that even [a] minimum agenda could generate a positive market impact.”

By the time you read this, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the left-leaning PT is likely to have secured a resounding victory over his challenger, Geraldo Alckmin of the centrist PSDB. If the size of that victory reflects his lead in the latest polls – of up to 26 percentage points – the second Lula administration is likely to give Wall Street bankers cause for a little less complacency.