Housing minister Caroline Flint’s speaking notes for cabinet – headed “State of Housing market” and inadvertently revealed in press photographs on Tuesday – state: “Given present trends, they [house prices] will clearly show sizeable falls in prices later this year – at best down 5-10% year-on-year.”

“House building is also stalling. New starts are already down 10% compared to a year ago. Housebuilders are predicting further falls. Having seen net additions reach roughly 200,000 in each of the last two years, the figure for 2008-09 is almost certain to be well down on that.