Victory in South Africa’s election for the African National Congress was never really in doubt. Fifteen years after the country’s first free elections, the ANC still reaps its liberation movement credentials, and has won over 66 per cent of the votes counted so far. If there is doubt, it is whether Jacob Zuma, the likely head of state, can manage the expectations of voters who have returned the ANC to power for the fourth time. This is in spite of successive failures to deliver long-promised improvements in housing, education, healthcare and public infrastructure.

The problem has always been implementation, rather than lack of cash. Still, as last year’s riots showed, patience is running thin, and unemployment, at 22 per cent, remains high. A policy swing to the left seems inevitable as Mr Zuma rewards his trade union, South African Communist party and ANC youth league backers. Yet he has limited room for manoeuvre. The International Monetary Fund believes South Africa’s commodity-rich economy will shrink by 0.3 per cent this year, after growing by 3 per cent in 2008. Nor can Mr Zuma afford to go beyond the government’s existing $67bn infrastructure spending plan. Borrowing this year is already equivalent to 8 per cent of national income.