It is an unseasonably sticky evening in a pleasant park opposite Jönkoping town hall on the southern tip of Sweden’s Lake Vattern. A crescendo from the brass band signifies that Göran Persson, Sweden’s prime minister, is about to take the stage.

The audience of around 400 is mainly middle-aged and older, perfect fodder for the message they are about to receive fromMr Persson, who has been their prime minister for the last decade but who is within a whisker of losing his job in Sunday’s election.