The trend for graciously declining your bonus, started by executives at Goldman Sachs and UBS, might cause concern in America’s banking C-suites. Who will now brave the public’s wrath by taking home the usual year-end package these days? Banking executives’ underlings also have reason to be concerned. Their leaders’ gesture could be a hint that an industry, which for years has handed over an outsize chunk of its value to staff, is readying itself for a sea change.

Investment banks, shackled by federal regulation, are facing a less profitable future. To improve their earnings power, and share price outlook, their most potent tool is compensation, historically accounting for up to half of net revenues. Tweaking that ratio in typical investment bank’s income statement suggests that reducing compensation from 45 to 35 per cent of net revenues would boost earnings per share for next year by about 40 per cent. That equates to a bonus pool close to half that for 2007’s record year.